PRO FOOTBALL FOCUS MOCK DRAFT HAS COLTS SELECTING SURPRISING DEFENDER WITH NO. 4 PICK

While many corners of the football world expect the Indianapolis Colts to select a quarterback fourth overall in next month's NFL Draft, Pro Football Focus' Brad Spielberger predicts a defense-first approach in his latest mock exercise.

Spielberger sees quarterbacks C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson off the board with the first three picks. Then, things get interesting. The analyst projects Indianapolis to bypass Alabama's Will Anderson Jr. and Georgia's Jalen Carter in favor of Oregon cornerback Christian Gonzalez.

Based on his performance at the NFL Scouting Combine and his prototypical frame, Gonzalez is a strong contender to be the first cornerback off the board.

"Gonzalez was built in a lab to be an NFL cornerback, with a sturdy 6-foot-1, 197-pound frame, 32-inch arms and freakish athleticism. Gonzalez's 4.38-second 40-yard dash places in the 89th percentile among cornerbacks in PFF's database, his 41.5-inch vertical ranks in the 97th percentile and his 11-foot-1 broad jump is in the 96th percentile," Spielberger writes. 

The Next Gen Stats Draft Model, which incorporates NFL Combine, pro day and college production data to predict future success, ranks Gonzalez as the draft's No. 1 cornerback prospect. He earned a "Production Score" of 85 and an estimated "Athletic Score" of 88, totaling a 92 overall score, the highest among combine cornerbacks.

Gonzalez, an All-Pac-12 honorable mention at Colorado, transferred to Oregon in January of 2022. Last season, he ranked third in the Pac-12 with four interceptions, while his seven passes defended were tied for ninth among conference leaders, earning him first-team All-Conference honors.

Although the Colts need a quarterback, if the draft plays out the way Spielberger predicts -- which is entirely possible -- the fourth pick should not be wasted on the fourth-best signal-caller in the class

Following the trade of Stephon Gilmore to the Cowboys, Kenny Moore II and Isaiah Rodgers Sr. are the team's presumed starting cornerbacks for the coming season. While the duo has shown that it can be productive, both players are coming off season-ending injuries and facing uncertain futures.

Rodgers was PFF's fifth-highest-graded cornerback last season, while Moore was ranked 96th. If Indianapolis drafts him, Gonzalez could theoretically step in as a Day 1 starter in place of Moore. Illustrating the tricky nature of the draft, the fourth pick might be too high to justify selecting the Oregon standout over Anderson or Carter, though, even if he would be an excellent Gilmore replacement.

With several talented cornerback prospects projected as first-round picks, trading back may also be a viable option if the Colts miss out on the quarterback of their choice. Or, even more boldly, if the team is open to trading their pick, offering it in a deal for Baltimore's Lamar Jackson would be an intriguing path to follow.

The 2023 NFL Draft, hosted in Kansas City, is scheduled to get underway on April 27.

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