NCAA TOURNAMENT BUBBLE WATCH: LSU ENTERS FIELD WHILE NOTABLE TEAMS FALL OUT
A lot happened over the week across college baseball, and it’s safe to say that the NCAA Tournament bubble has changed quite a bit. In our latest Field of 64 projections released on Monday, the bubble underwent some notable changes with new faces and others falling out.
It’s important to note that a lot will change in the tournament picture over the next couple of weeks. Two weekends remain in the regular season, and then conference tournaments get underway. Bids will be stolen and that will impact the bubble, but for now it’s a solid group of teams fighting for their lives.
The most notable inclusion is undoubtedly LSU, the defending national champions. Being on the bubble is impressive alone at this point given where they were not long ago. Coastal Carolina is the most notable team on the wrong side of the bubble, as the Chanticleers have gone from potential host to on the outside in just a couple of weeks.
Here is a full look at how we view the NCAA Tournament bubble as of today. The selection show is on Monday, May 27 at 12 noon ET.
NCAA Tournament Bubble: Last Four In
UCF, LSU, Charleston, Illinois
UCF was once viewed as a potential NCAA Tournament host, but they now sit in serious danger of missing the field altogether. Currently 29-15 overall and 11-12 in the Big 12, UCF sits at No. 30 in RPI. This weekend’s series against Texas is huge, as the result and the fashion in which it happens could play a big role in where both teams stand next week. UCF finishes the regular season at Baylor next weekend, in a must-win series and one we expect them to take.
All of a sudden, LSU is back in the mix. The Tigers took two out of three against previously top-ranked Texas A&M over the weekend, and now look to be in a solid position as of right now for the postseason. First, LSU needs to keep winning. They have won three consecutive SEC series and have a pivotal matchup this weekend at Alabama. At 31-18 overall and 9-15 overall, the Tigers need to win their final two series and get to 13 SEC wins. They could potentially get away with winning once against Alabama and then sweeping Ole Miss to end the regular season, depending on what happens in Hoover. LSU’s RPI currently sits at No. 34.
Charleston is a legitimate threat to sneak into the NCAA Tournament field, and we expect them to as one of our last teams in on the bubble. They are currently 33-11 overall, 16-4 in the CAA and No. 54 in RPI. This weekend’s home series against Northeastern is massive, and winning it would do a lot for Charleston’s hopes. They then have a four-game road week to end the year, starting at Duke before a series at Elon. The path is certainly there.
Illinois currently sits atop the Big Ten standings at 13-5 in league play, also 28-16 overall. We projected Nebraska to win the automatic bid in the league, but Illinois is right in the mix on the tournament bubble still. With RPI at No. 60, that’s not currently good enough to make it in. But two massive and winnable series remain, first vs. Iowa this weekend and then at Purdue. If the Illini go 5-1 over that stretch, or at least win both weekends, they are going to be right there in the mix.
First Four Out
Georgia Tech, Maryland, Florida, Coastal Carolina
As of right now, Georgia Tech (28-17 overall, 12-12 in ACC, No. 46 in RPI) would likely be in the NCAA Tournament as a bubble team. But with a tough schedule remaining, it won’t be easy. The Yellow Jackets are at home against Duke this weekend before finishing the regular season at Florida State next weekend. Those are two projected hosts, though they aren’t unbeatable. If Georgia Tech can go 3-3 over these two weekends, they have a good chance. We just aren’t sure if they’ll be able to get there.
On the surface, Maryland’s 31-18 overall record and No. 35 look good enough to be in, and probably off of the bubble. But their 10-11 Big Ten record is a big holdup. Maryland has a pair of games at Boston College this weekend, and then finish their regular season at home against Penn State. A sweep would be huge, while taking two out of three might just not be enough. A lot will depend on what happens in the Big Ten Tournament, but Maryland has some work to do to get on the right side of the tournament bubble.
Florida did not win a single SEC series in the month of April, but they were able to win a game in each of their last three weekends. For a team that’s hovering around .500, that is important. Unfortunately for the Gators, we just don’t expect them to have a good enough record to get in. They are currently 10-14 in SEC play and finish with weekends vs. Kentucky and at Georgia. If Florida can find a way to steal one of those series, they might be on the right side of the bubble. But it’s going to be a tough road.
The phrase “peaking at the right time” is thrown around a lot this time of the year, and Coastal Carolina is the opposite. After winning a big series against Louisiana in mid-April and moving into the hosting discussion, it’s been all downhill since. Coastal Carolina has lost eight consecutive games, being swept by Troy and at Southern Miss, although both are solid teams. While the remaining schedule is definitely not too bad, vs. Georgia State and at Marshall, we need to see more from the Chanticleers to move them back into the field.
Next Four Out
James Madison, Texas Tech, Kansas, California
The tournament bubble has gotten stronger over recent weeks, which isn’t great news for James Madison. They are a legitimate candidate to make the field, but they have some work to do. Currently 28-19 overall, 13-11 in the Sun Belt and No. 37 in RPI, James Madison finishes vs. Marshall (RPI 206) and at Troy (RPI 47). The Troy series will be tough, while they really need to sweep Marshall to avoid taking an RPI hit. A midweek trip to Virginia Tech next Tuesday also looms, which could be another big opportunity for a boost.
Texas Tech has been on a bit of a rollercoaster all season. Currently, they’ve lost seven of their last eight games and are 0-6 in their last two Big 12 series at Kansas and vs. Oklahoma. The Red Raiders are officially in the danger zone, and this weekend at Oklahoma State is essentially an elimination series for them. If they drop the series and fall to 13-17 in Big 12 play, or get swept to fall to 12-18, they’re out of the picture. But if they can win, they will hold onto at least a little bit of hope.
After sweeping Texas Tech two weeks ago, Kansas was trending upwards and appeared to be sneaking towards the right side of the tournament bubble. They really needed to take this past weekend’s series at Kansas State, but dropped two out of three instead. Kansas is 27-17 overall and 13-11 in Big 12 play, currently sitting at No. 64 in RPI. They have to win the series, and likely sweep Houston at home this weekend. Then, the Jayhawks really need to take the series at Texas to end the regular season to put a stamp on their resume.
California swept Oregon State three weekends ago, but have gone 3-3 in series at Stanford and USC since then. This weekend’s non-conference series against San Jose State is a non-conference series, but it remains huge as San Jose State is No. 183 in RPI and would be killer for California. At 28-17 overall, 14-13 in the Pac-12 and No. 58 in RPI, Cal needs to take that series and the one against Washington to end the year, with sweeps likely needed in both.
The post NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: LSU enters field while notable teams fall out appeared first on On3.
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