BREWERS VS. CUBS ODDS, PREDICTION: MLB PICKS, BEST BETS FOR FRIDAY

As if the Brewers’ week couldn’t get any more bizarre, now they face the manager who took them to three division crowns and five playoff appearances over his nine seasons in Milwaukee.

With both teams fighting atop the NL Central standings, Craig Counsell’s Chicago Cubs take on the Brewers Friday afternoon in the first of a three-game set at Wrigley Field. 

It will be Counsell’s first time managing against his old club after signing a record $40 million contract over five years with Chicago last November.

Let’s take a closer look at Counsell’s tenure in Milwaukee, the fallout from his departure and how that might impact Friday night’s matchup.

Brewers vs. Cubs odds

Bolting Brew City didn’t sit well with the folks Counsell left behind, including many fans and owner Mark Attanasio who felt betrayed.

“Craig has lost us and he’s lost our community also,” Attanasio said in the hours after his manager abruptly announced his departure without allowing the Brewers – or any other club, including the Mets – to match. 

It wasn’t just that Counsell left. It was that he departed for the Cubs, Milwaukee’s most bitter rival just 90 miles down I-94. 

Of all people, Counsell should have known the shit he would stir up with his widely perceived betrayal. 

His father, John, worked for the Brewers in the late ‘70s and early ‘80s. Young Craig was a frequent visitor to the Brewers clubhouse, bumping fists with players like Robin Yount and Paul Molitor on the regular.

Counsell had two stints as a player during his 16 MLB seasons and went on to become their all-time winningest manager. 

But the day he left, profanity was spray-painted across the sign outside the Little League ballpark that was named after him in Whitefish Bay, the Milwaukee suburb where the Cubs manager grew up and still resides.

Thomas Wolfe wrote the novel “You Can’t Go Home Again” in 1940. At the end of this month, that will be tested for Counsell when the Cubs travel north to play four games at American Family Field.

But on Friday, he’ll get the friendly confines of Wrigley as a warmup. No doubt, he’ll be warmly greeted by his former players and will awkwardly shake hands with Attanasio before Hayden Wesneski throws out the first pitch for the North Siders.

One person who won’t be there to greet him is Pat Murphy, a longtime friend and the man who replaced him as manager of the Brewers. 

Murph, who was Counsell’s college coach at Notre Dame before Counsell hired him in 2015 to be his top lieutenant in Milwaukee, is serving a two-game suspension for his role in an altercation that took place on Tuesday against Tampa Bay. In total, 16 games worth of suspensions were handed down, including 13 to the Brewers alone (five for ace Freddy Peralta, six for reliever Abner Uribe and Murphy’s two).

It was the latest in a stretch of bizarre moments in games over the last week for Milwaukee.

The Brewers were on the wrong end of several disputed umpiring calls in their series with the Yankees and Rays, including Aaron Judge mitt-gate last weekend, a ninth-inning tying passed ball that was wiped away in a 1-0 loss to the Rays on Monday, and a brawl the led to the ejection of three players.

That’s one stark contrast between Counsell and Murphy. These Brewers love to fight. Tuesday was the third time in this young season benches have been cleared in a game managed by Murphy. They lead the majors in that category through the first month.

Benches clear in Brewers-Rays game after Milwaukee manager Pat Murphy loses his mind, a breakdown pic.twitter.com/UWkQRj0S0U

— Jomboy (@Jomboy_) May 2, 2024

There are other differences, of course. Murphy loves to play small ball even though he has a team that is second in the majors in home runs per game (1.27). Station to station when needed, stealing bases with abandon (No. 3 in MLB with 40 thefts). 

Heck, he’s even brought bunting back, and we’re not talking about the type hung around baseball stadiums on the Fourth of July.

In other words, he’s much more adaptable than his predecessor ever was. 

If the whole Counsell-Brewers revenge tour this month does nothing else, it’ll get you to appreciate a different brand of baseball than you’ve been accustomed to seeing from Milwaukee over the last decade, where analytics ruled and reduced the in-game human decision-making.

If Counsell were a car, he’d be a Tesla in self-drive mode. No need to stop for gas or pull out a map. Murphy is more like a late ‘60s classic Camaro with a turbo engine that’s constantly being tinkered with on the weekends. 

Entering the series opener on Friday, their teams sit 1-2 in the NL Central, with the Brewers a game ahead in the standings.

Ricky Weeks, who Counsell coached for four seasons in Milwaukee, will stand in for Murphy as manager in Game 2 of the suspension. He’ll have Joe Ross toeing the slab, opposing Wesneski, who is making his second start of the season after a few bullpen appearances.

Both teams are trying to figure out the best fits for their Friday starters.

Ross, who is coming off Tommy John surgery, signed a one-year prove-it deal in the offseason with the idea he would fight for a starting job. He won the No. 3 role in spring training but he has spilled oil over his last three starts, giving up 13 earned runs in 15 innings for a 7.80 ERA. 

Murphy has defended Ross as a pitcher who has suffered from bad luck. For example, against the Padres two weeks ago, he gave up nine hits – all soft singles – in a 7-3 loss to San Diego.

At this point, the Brewers don’t have many options but to have patience with Ross. Peralta will miss a start while serving his suspension, Wade Miley’s season is over after it was revealed he needs Tommy John surgery, and RHP Jacob Junis is rehabbing a shoulder impingement.

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Meanwhile, Wesneski has a chance to stick in Counsell’s rotation after giving up just one earned run on five hits through four innings against the Red Sox last Sunday while filling in for injured Jordan Wicks.

Recalled from Triple-A on April 17, he has now strung together three solid outings, giving up just one earned run in 10 ⅓ innings.

Projections from both ZiPS and Steamer agree their is some positive regression coming for Ross and negative regression for Wesneski.

With the revenge factor in play, take the Brewers at plus-money (and maybe throw some change on a fight).

Pick: Brewers moneyline (+110, DraftKings)

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2024-05-03T14:08:17Z dg43tfdfdgfd